More Of The Same

Yesterday’s NAM model was a little too generous with the snow in some locations and pretty good in other locations with Purg getting 4″ and T’ride getting 6″-Wolf Creek got jipped with an angry inch.

As the headline reads, more of the same is on the way. Light snow will start again late on Saturday and end Sunday, then another wave looks like it is coming in very very early Monday morning which will probably actually arrive a little later, and could bring a little more snow than we have seen lately.

Looking at the MJO you can see there are significant differences in the long term.

Here is what the GFS has gone to, the US CFS model agrees.

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While the Euro has not changed, it is still tanking from 6 to the null phase, the Canadian agrees.

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In short, this means we have slight agreement through the 15th and major disagreements after the 15th. The implications of either direction will not have huge negative or positive effects on our area, but it sure does affect long term forecasting.

So to recap, more very light snow late Saturday/early Sunday, then a better chance for slightly heavier snow early Monday and another similar wave late Tuesday early Wednesday. The models diverge after that with some models trying to sniff out a significant storm for next weekend. A big storm would be nice, but sometimes it is also nice to get more frequent storms producing sub-advisory totals, either way, we’ll take it!

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