Here is how to interpret this: “We are still very uncertain how this is all going to come together, so uncertain that we normally would have issued a Winter Storm Watch by now, but the models can’t seem to agree if there will be any snow accumulation below 7,500′ until Friday. We are going to go ahead and leave it up to the next shift to determine how aggressive they want to get on the advisory or warning”

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RANGELY, DINOSAUR, CRAIG, HAYDEN, MEEKER,
RIO BLANCO, COLUMBINE, HAHNS PEAK, TOPONAS, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS,
GRAND JUNCTION, FRUITA, PALISADE, COLLBRAN, DE BEQUE, NEW CASTLE,
MESA, PARACHUTE, RIFLE, SILT, EAGLE, EDWARDS, GLENWOOD SPRINGS,
CARBONDALE, BASALT, SKYWAY, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS, MONTROSE,
HOTCHKISS, DELTA, CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE, BUFORD,
TRAPPERS LAKE, GUNNISON, CIMARRON, RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK,
TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, HESPERUS, GATEWAY,
NUCLA, CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
PAGOSA SPRINGS, BLANDING, BLUFF, MEXICAN HAT, MANILA, DUTCH JOHN,
VERNAL, JENSEN, BALLARD, FORT DUCHESNE, RANDLETT, MOAB,
CASTLE VALLEY, THOMPSON SPRINGS, MONTICELLO,
CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK, DEAD HORSE POINT STATE PARK,
AND FRY CANYON
236 AM MST WED JAN 15 2020

A STRONG STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE
TOMORROW. THIS SNOW WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINING MOUNTAIN RANGES
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PEAK SNOWFALL RATES LOOK TO OCCUR
ON FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE MOUNTAIN
PASSES WILL BE IMPACTED, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 40-60 MPH IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING SNOW.
ANYONE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ACROSS EASTERN UTAH OR WESTERN COLORADO
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS THIS WINTER STORM MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

I will do a model update around noon, yesterday the models were putting most of their eggs in the Thursday basket, overnight they seem to have changed to a slower arrival and stronger storm Friday, it should be interesting.

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