I have been trying to keep expectations in check for the weak system coming in which should start to move some showers and light snow into the area between 5 pm-11 pm tonight, with on and off showers throughout the day tomorrow, hits and misses. What I have mentioned is what looks like a wetter period than we have seen in quite a while in the 10 day period roughly between the 10th-17th. I have been encouraged with what I have seen, but I probably won’t start dissecting it until Monday’s post, then I can start easing into it, because we may start seeing the effects mid to late next week. If this pans out it will be focused over a small area over SW Colorado, that is good for us, bad for everyone else so you may not be hearing the folks who concentrate on the northern and central mountains share my enthusiasm.

I do have maps for you today, everyone who read my map segment yesterday, who previously had a difficult time deciphering the maps, gave me positive feedback and said it helped. So if you have problems reading the maps and have not yet read that post, you may want to check it out.

I am going to limit the output to liquid precipitation on this post, some of the models are having a difficult time separating the rain and snow with the warmer temps, but I will sort that out in the wrap up at the end of this post.

These runs are the most recent observational model runs, the reason I post late is so that I can include their most recent data. Just a reminder Spring forward does not apply to weather models, so every run will be an hour later, as will be my posts, unfortunately, from tomorrow through November. BOOOO!

Here is the most recent version of the top three models, total liquid precipitation from first to last drop/flake.

GFS

Canadian

Euro

I will be doing an entire segment on Model Resolution, it is easier to do this when we are dealing with heavy amounts of precipitation, something that has been foreign to us in SW Colorado for a while. I am encouraged by the number of people who have said they are looking forward to it, so it’s coming, I just want to wait for the appropriate time to demonstrate how big of a difference it actually makes.

Takeaways

Precipitation should start between 5 pm and 11 pm this evening.

Roads could get slick in Archuleta County very early Sunday morning, mostly above 7,500′.

Snow should start wet and sloppy in the higher elevations, but cooler weather will eventually prevail.

Preliminary amounts by late Sunday night or Monday morning.

Telluride 2-4″

Purgatory 4-6″

Wolf Creek 4-8″

I cannot rule out a dusting in the overnight hours down to 7,200′ up to an inch Sunday and or Monday morning.

If you have not read this mornings post about the season end contest read it here: End Of The Season Announcement-The Contest

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