I don’t have any new information on the Ice Fire west of Silverton. Unfortunately, fires have to be larger and more threatening before I can access information on them. The bad news is the fire will likely grow over the next few days before we (hopefully) get some cooler and wetter conditions on Sunday and Monday.
All of the models show varying degrees of the storm system affecting portions of the forecast area, although the storm track is very uncertain at this point. There is widespread agreement that behind the storm temperatures will fall below average. I mention this because if this pans out you are going to wish you would have winterized sprinklers and/or evaporative coolers this week. Overnight lows could fall to the lowest levels so far this fall by next Tuesday morning.
One difference with this system is it looks like it will drop in further west than what we have seen for a while. The northern storm track has been very busy lately for Montana and Wyoming and even extending into the upper midwest.
The Canadian model is going crazy with rain and snow amounts, the GFS and Euro seem to be going back and forth on their totals.
Here were the latest totals from the overnight model runs.
GFS liquid amounts
The Euro and GFS are both enhancing the precipitation to our east. The Euro is showing quite a bit of precipitation over Archuleta County and both sides of Wolf Creek Pass.
Now for the Canadian–the Canadian jumped on board in a big way. I would not rely on the Canadian by itself, not yet anyway. I use it as a reminder of the potential for this storm if everything went perfectly, which almost never happens.
Next update Wednesday. Thanks for following!