At this point, the models seem to have agreed to disagree. Let’s hope the Euro is correct.
Here is the most recent (overnight) run of the GFS.
GFS liquid
GFS snow
There is no reason to post the evening run as it looks exactly like this.
Here are the last two Euro model runs.
Euro evening run liquid
Euro evening run snow
Euro overnight run liquid
Euro overnight run snow
NWS updated the Winter Storm Watch.
COZ018-019-242200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.A.0009.201025T1800Z-201027T0600Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
234 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2020
…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…
* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN…FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
I hope the Euro is right. After reading the NWS forecast discussion, I sense that they are leaning towards the Euro. They also mention the fact that “There is still the possibility for slight changes in the pattern that could alter this scenario”.
I think they are talking about a possible slowdown of the southward progression of the front. I mentioned this yesterday as a scenario that could impact us positively. I would not be at all surprised to see the Watch become a Warning late today or this evening. If they extend the Warning period into Tuesday, that is a good sign.
I am going to do another Update this afternoon. If something becomes relevant before or after that I will not hesitate to post.
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