Published at noon Friday, February 5th
A quick thanks to those of you who sent me birthday wishes yesterday. It was a largely uneventful day which is exactly what I had hoped for.
Followers in Telluride and Ouray were very happy on Thursday, waking up to 6-11 inches of snow. The rest of us not so much, it was a big bust for Wolf Creek and the lower and mid-elevations. I don’t remember the last time that model was as wrong as it was in some areas.
For tonight, the northwest flow should produce 2 to 4 inches of snow for Telluride, Rico, Ouray, and Silverton, the rest of us may see some flurries. If Purgatory is lucky an inch or so could accumulate in the unfavorable flow.
The models are showing moisture starting to sneak in under the ridge of high-pressure Wednesday and Thursday with light snow in many areas. A week from today the Euro and Canadian are showing a more significant storm combining with colder air dropping into the forecast area to produce more significant snow. It is similar to a scenario I presented a few days ago. This far out I don’t expect the GFS to agree with the Euro because they have opposite biases. The GFS is always too quick in moving storms east and the Euro at times keeps storms in the west too long. When the Canadian agrees with the Euro the odds of success tick up slightly.
Of course, I will keep you posted on this. Although it is a week away it is great to see the Euro and Candian agreeing on the major pattern change back to where we were in mid to late January.
Next Update Saturday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!