Local Forecast Area Update

Friday 8/27 10 am

I have decided not to combine the hurricane updates with the local weather, it is just too much content. My Hurricane Ida update should be out before noon.

Smoke from existing fires should not be an issue through Saturday night. I am closely watching Sunday and Monday. The tail end of the 48 hour run time of the smoke model shows a plume descending south towards the northern portions of our forecast area. The model only forecasts 48 hours at a time so that is the extent of my vision. I should get some clarity on that tomorrow so stay tuned.

Yesterday was more show than flow. Most of the reports were in the hundredths of an inch. The largest totals were in northern Dolores and eastern San Miguel counties and were less than 0.20″. I did get some reports of a couple of nice lightning shows last night.

For today, another chance of storms developing but they will be more isolated than yesterday. CAPE is higher, surface moisture is about the same as yesterday, ranging from 110% to 130% of normal for this time of year.

Here is the forecast for CAPE today from 9 am to midnight.

It looks like the weather will cooperate for the San Juan Brew Festival this weekend. In fact, there is very little precipitation in the forecast until next week.

Yesterday I mentioned a tropical depression had formed off the west coast of Mexico. That depression now has a name, Nora (don’t get Nora confused with Ida which I will cover in my hurricane update later this morning).  We are hoping that when Nora dies off early next week that her remnants will follow a course that takes them right over our forecast area.

The models continue to suggest that will happen. Here is the latest Euro multi-model guidance for Nora’s track.

Starting on Tuesday, here is how the operational Euro model depicts the precipitation over our area.  This is Tuesday morning through Saturday morning.

It is showing the bulk of the precipitation occurring from late Wednesday through Friday morning.

Here is how that adds up



Go (dead) Nora go!  As we get closer I will be able to incorporate additional models into that forecast.

If you are interested or have a vested interest in what will soon become Hurricane Ida. My Next update will be out before noon.

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