96 hours later, the models are still not consistent in their precipitation forecast totals for the next storm. Here is what I can tell you. A storm will likely brush by mostly the northern portions of our forecast area. Precipitation should start sometime on Tuesday, most likely between late afternoon and midnight. Depending on what time the precipitation starts the snow level should be at or below around 8,700 feet. Light snow will continue throughout the overnight hours and move out during the day on Wednesday. Red Mountain and Telluride look like they will be the main beneficiaries of this storm.
How much precipitation falls is the question. Every 6 hours the Euro and GFS models are flipping back and forth on their totals. The Canadian model was very aggressive in its previous 3 runs. It showed a significant storm and included much of the central and some of the southern portions. Then, last night it gave up on all of that and fell into line with the Euro and GFS. As I said those two models are flipping back and forth, but they are only forecasting 2 to 5 inches (in their last 4 runs) of snow from Telluride to Red Mountain, with a dusting to an inch or so for other areas. For what it is worth, the German model has been showing higher totals and is showing more widespread precipitation throughout the forecast area.
My next update will be on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!