Models still show snow breaking out in the early evening hours over the higher elevations in the northern portions of the forecast area. I would not be surprised if the onset slowed based on the apparent position of the disturbances to our west and the stalled front on the eastern side of the divide.
Here are the latest precipitation maps
GFS
Canadian-this makes the most sense orographically
German
Euro-not too sure about this
Given the latest model runs, I have not seen enough to warrant changing the forecast I posted yesterday.
3 to 6 inches of snow from Telluride over to Red Mountain Pass. 1 to 3 inches of snow will be possible around Silverton and Molas Pass. A dusting to an inch will be possible for Purgatory, Coal Bank, and Wolf Creek.
This will move out tomorrow, the ridge will pop once again and the boring weather will continue. As far as next week goes, it is too early to tell. The deterministic models backed off the storm. The ensemble (multi-model) runs are trying to flatten the ridge mid-week. I do expect a pattern change before the end of the month. I am just not sure when it will be.
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Sorry for the late report…only 0.070-inch of water at intersection of CR 228 and 502. Had rain followed by snow earlier this morning before sunrise.