Small Storm Wrap Up Big Storm Update

12/7/21 Tuesday 12:20 pm

Purgatory ended up with 3 inches of snow which was at the higher end of my forecast. Wolf Creek reported 2 inches which is about what I thought. Silverton and Rico both reported 2 inches. Telluride ended up with 6 inches which was on the high side of my forecast. I got a report from Red Mountain pass of 7 inches which slightly exceeded my expectations.

Tomorrow we will see light snow showers mostly above 8,000 feet but we may see a few flurries pop up below that.

On Thursday snow showers will continue mostly in the mountains. By mid to late afternoon light snow showers should spread to the mid-elevation areas. By late afternoon a rain or rain-snow mix will occur from 6,500 feet to 7,000 feet. Snow gets heavy Thursday evening in the mid and high elevation areas.

At the moment, the all snow level appears to be around 7,000 feet until late Thursday night. I am still working out the details. It is varying with each model run slightly. The latest model runs started slowing down the onset of the heavier precipitation. That is a good thing and I hope it continues.

I think it is all going to balance out because the temperature will drop quickly and the snow to liquid ratios will skyrocket before the storm departs the area on Friday. In the mountains, snow to liquid ratios (SWE) will range from 12 to1 up to 20+ to 1. In the low elevations, the ratios could range from 8 to 1 up to 16 to 1 before the storm departs.

Here are the latest forecasts for liquid precipitation

GFS