12/28/21 Tuesday 1:10 pm
The current lull in the lower and mid-elevations should come to an end by late afternoon or early evening. The models are suggesting snow will resume in those areas from west to east between 3 pm and 6 pm. Snow showers will be intermittent again tomorrow after sunrise.
That will continue through the day on Thursday. Accumulations will be minimal between Wednesday evening and Thursday night. I have gotten a number of emails from people needing to travel over the passes before the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday between 10 am and 1 pm looks to be the best options, otherwise Saturday late morning/early afternoon.
Snow will pick back up late Thursday night into early Friday morning as the next system approaches. It is actually two systems that are going to merge. There is still some uncertainty about the exact track. If things don’t go well, we will still have a good storm. If things go as some of the model runs have been depicting it will be a great storm.
I have talked about these perfect storm scenarios in the past. You get moist Pacific air being pulled into our area via a closed area of low pressure. At the same time, you have very cold air coming from the northwest, the systems end up merging somewhere to our west and moving right over our area.
Before I show you the maps here is a summary of what you will be seeing. I took the last 2 full runs of the Euro, Canadian, and GFS. I equally blended the 6 model runs to arrive at a wide range look at the snowfall potential between Wednesday at 5 pm through Saturday when the last flakes fly and snow leaves the area.
I will hone in on these totals as we get closer. My final forecast will be out either late Thursday or early Friday depending on the timing of the arrival of heavier precipitation. As I said earlier, I only expect minimal accumulations between Wednesday evening and Thursday night. The bulk of the snow will fall between 11 pm Thursday and 5 am.
For Aztec and northern New Mexico 2 to 5 inches of snow could fall. The model range for the lower elevations in the forecast area is 6 to 14 inches. For mid-elevations, the range is 10 to 24 inches. For areas above 8,500 feet, the range is 18 to 30 inches. For Wolf Creek, the range is 30 to 50 inches of additional snow from Wednesday evening through Saturday morning.
A whole new set of Winter StormWarnings should come out no later than Thursday. I would not be surprised to see an early Winter Storm Watch hoisted Wednesday late afternoon.
Here are the maps, some of you love them, some of you not so much.
Unless I see something I feel I need to mention in the NWS forecast discussion later this afternoon, my next update will be Wednesday morning by 9 am. Thanks for following and supporting the site!