Monsoonal Flow Returns Plus A New Development for DWG

6/21/22 Tuesday 5 am

Pattern Change–Again

Yesterday was easily the most beautiful day of the spring and summer so far. As I mentioned yesterday, that nice weather is not going to last. Some of the models show pop-up showers starting late in the day today. I think that the precipitation will hold off one more day before we drop back into a wet pattern that will last a very long time. Significant rains will start up again on Wednesday with reinforcing shots on Thursday. Perhaps a brief lull on Friday morning before we reload for the weekend. The next break looks like Tuesday morning, That seemed to be a good time to get out of the raft and check the forecast totals.
Here are the latest seven-day precipitation forecasts ending Tuesday, June 28th. A lot can happen between now and then but all of the models are pointing to this pattern change and there is very good agreement among the models in their forecast totals.
NOAA’s WPC model
NOAA’s NBM model
If these totals verify, most of the forecast area will be near all-time historic values for June precipitation. Values like that usually only occur when there is a rare early-season recurving Pacific Tropical Cyclone.

A New Development For DWG

I mentioned a “new development” earlier. I am going to launch a weather video channel on YouTube, more than likely by mid-July. I have big plans for it during the upcoming winter. I am also going to be upgrading DWG mobile command so I can bring more of the weather to you. In the meantime, I thought I might work out any of the bugs during the monsoon season. So send me your weather videos, and with your permission, I will post them along with my own on the channel. I may not pick every video that comes in, I will cross that bridge when I come to it.
My next update will be Wednesday mid-morning. I am going to wait until the morning high-resolution models come out to attempt to better time the onset of the precipitation tomorrow.
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