7/31/22 Sunday 7:30 am

Late-day showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet today. The models struggle with these mesoscale features. Last night we saw them develop mostly over the southern portions of the forecast. Amounts from over a half inch to 2 inches accumulated over the last 24 hours. Most of that fell between 8 pm and midnight last night.

The atmosphere is once again nearly saturated with precipitable water values ranging from 150-180% of the climatological average for this date. High-resolution short-term models show plenty of CAPE available for storm development this afternoon.

On Monday another round of convection will be possible but the atmosphere may be slightly drier than today. It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday will have the best chance of drying out a bit, although you know the drill when it comes to afternoon thunderstorms this time of year. The best chances for storms on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the higher terrain.

All of the models are showing another deep surge of monsoonal moisture for Thursday and Friday. This far out they are in disagreement on the track of that moisture.

My next update will be on Monday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!