Low Confidence Forecast

8/5/22 Friday 7:45 am
Just a couple of days ago it still looked like we would get the long touted surge of deep monsoonal moisture today, Saturday, and Sunday. That no longer appears to be the case, at least for today and tomorrow. Does that mean it will be dry? No guarantees. Sunday looks like it will be the most active day of the three. Does that mean it is going to rain on Sunday? No guarantees.  Things should start to dry out a bit today. Depending on what time the sun decides to come out, we may see some isolated storms fire again this afternoon. Most of the action yesterday was limited to the higher terrain, I expect that to be the case again today. However, it seems like every day an unexpected storm fires up somewhere it is not supposed to. That was the case late afternoon and early evening, around and just outside of Cortez. 0.50 inches to over 1.00 inches fell in a very short period of time.
You may sense my frustrations. I take pride in trying to provide some guidance to my followers. This season I have spent more time on monsoon-weather forecasting than I ever have in the past and it has been a humbling experience at best. I have learned a lot though. I am ready for winter! Give me a deep SoCal low-pressure system drifting across the southwest getting ready to integrate with a cold front from the north. That’s what I am looking for. It will be here soon enough. Check out the 46-day snow map ending September 18th.
I know it is a minuscule amount, but I will be posting it as it updates every week.
Speaking of snow, I have been getting a lot of questions about winter. People want to know if the wet summer will carry over to winter. I would also like to know the answer to that question. The truth is it is too early to tell. The summer engine and winter engine use different fuels. They are mostly unrelated. I usually start digging into winter by mid to late September.
My next update will be on Saturday. I am sure everything will change by then…Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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