Thursday Update–Holiday Weekend Forecast And The NOAA Winter Forecast

9/1/22 Thursday 6 am
Yesterday isolated convective systems managed to develop across portions of the forecast area. A couple of them looked impressive on the radar, but I did not get a lot of reports of heavy rain actually making it to the ground. With the exception of one report of 0.40 inches, most reporting sites were showing less than 0.10 inches.
At the moment, the next best chance of more scattered showers developing appears to be on Saturday afternoon. Other than that, more of the same conditions today through the weekend with mostly isolated storms firing favoring the higher terrain.
We are getting to the time of year when the winter forecasts are issued. I do not put a lot of faith into them until we get a little closer. The one I put the least faith into is the NOAA “forecast”.
The fact is, it is not a forecast but a probability scheme built on chances of above, below, or equal chances of above, below, or equal chances of precipitation and temperatures. I know that reads confusing because it is. What is out now is not their official outlook, but rather their latest monthly long-term seasonal outlook posted on August 18th.  It says the same thing it says every season. Below average precipitation with above average temperatures.
Guess what? That is what they said about June July and August. Here were the temperatures for that period.
Summer temperatures relative to average
Summer precipitation relative to average
So do yourself a favor and don’t start worrying about winter, it is too early to worry.
I will do a couple of short model updates through the weekend to check up on the storm chances for Saturday afternoon. Enjoy the extended weekend. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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