Saturday Morning Update–Watch Upgraded To Winter Storm Warning

On By durangoweatherguy
10/22/22 Saturday 7:30 am
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The NWS offices decided to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. Some areas will not meet the snowfall requirements for a Winter Storm Warning. As I explained the other day the rules are a bit different with early-season storms. I do expect there will be a few areas that will hit the higher snow accumulation requirements for a Winter Storm Warning. The other factor is the wind and the elevated CAPE which could lead to the development of snow squalls on Sunday.
I will talk more about accumulation in my afternoon update.
Here are the Winter Storm Warnings
COZ009-010-012-018-019-222200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0007.221023T0600Z-221024T1200Z/
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-  GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF VAIL, CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK,
TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON, AND RICO
422 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

* WHERE…GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS, GORE AND ELK
MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS, NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS COUNTIES.

* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.

_________________________________________________________
Wolf Creek

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
352 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2022

COZ060-066-068-230000-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0009.221023T0300Z-221024T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0012.221023T0600Z-221024T1200Z/
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
352 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 15  INCHES, HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 65 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET, LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET, AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

_________________________________________________________

The models have not changed much since yesterday afternoon. The Euro has a “rapid update” version that extends 90 hours. I only use it for short-term analysis. It just updated an hour ago and it bumped up the precipitation in the lower elevations from what the midnight run showed. I can only access this version from one of my providers so I put the red dot in for Durango.

Euro rapid update liquid

Euro rapid update snow

GFS liquid

GFS snow

Canadian liquid

Canadian snow

German liquid

NOAA WPC

 

I will talk more about accumulations this afternoon. Unless something changes my mind, I am currently favoring the Canadian, German, and NOAA WPC model outputs.

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