Pattern Change Next Week

10/29/22 Saturday 7:20 am
While is evident we will see a big change in our weather beginning very early Thursday morning, there are still more questions than answers regarding the track and intensity of the storm(s). The GFS and European have quietly changed places in the last 2 days or so with the GFS showing a better setup for SW Colorado. This has not been the case over the days leading up to that point. At one point the Euro was showing multiple feet of snow for our mountains while the GFS had a few inches with mostly a miss.
What I do know is that it will continue to be dry for the next few days. As the trough moves into the west, it will start to move the ridge currently over us to our east. Winds will switch to the southwest, the pressure gradient will tighten and it will probably get windy around here on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Prefrontal precipitation should start to break out by Thursday morning. Since the models are not in agreement regarding track and intensity, it is too early to talk about totals. The storm has a lot of potential, but I am not ready to get on board 100% yet.  If you use an app or rely on services with automated snow forecast updates, you will likely see them vary quite a bit from day to day.
Hopefully, we will start to see better model agreement soon. Thanks for following and supporting the site and the contest!

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