Monday Morning Update

12/12/22 Monday 5:30 am

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in place for the entire forecast area.

As of 4 am snow had started to fall in Telluride, Ouray, Silverton, and the 550 passes. Snow is just starting (4:30 am) to fall at Purgatory. Snow will continue to develop across the area this morning reaching Durango around 9 am. Mixed precipitation may briefly fall in Cortez and Mancos before changing over to snow. This may be the case as well in areas south of Durango below 6.500 feet.

The models are very well aligned this morning. Overall, I am a big fan of what I am seeing on the European model, it will be heavily weighted in my snow forecast. Here are the liquid precipitation forecast maps.

Euro–this is a different version, the 0.40 is Durango downtown so no need for a red dot.


NOAA WPC blended model–this model is a higher resolution model showing 0.30 inches at downtown Durango.

As I said earlier snow will continue to develop this morning, the heaviest snow should move in early this afternoon through the early evening. This will likely affect commuters at all elevations.  The snow should taper off tonight and tomorrow morning in the lower and mid-elevations. Intermittent snow showers will fall in the higher elevations over the next couple of days as the Arctic air mass settles in.

Here is my snow forecast, I do expect additional accumulations Tuesday and Wednesday in the higher elevation areas.

Wolf Creek:  10 to 13 inches

Purgatory, the 550 passes, Silverton, Rico:  7 to 9 inches

Telluride:  5 to 8 inches

Vallecito, Lemon area, top of Durango Hills, Glacier Club, Top of Forest Lakes, Durango Ridge Ranch, Hesperus Hill, and Mancos Hill, Ouray, Mayday:  4 to 6 inches

Mid-elevation areas above 7,400 feet:  3 to 5 inches

Areas between 6,500 and 7,200 feet:  2 to 4 inches

Areas below 6,500 feet:  up to 2 inches

Areas at or below 6,000 feet:  0 to 1 inch

My next update will be this afternoon. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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