12/15/22 Thursday 7 am
A weak short-wave trough will pass to the north today resulting in snow showers developing throughout the day and evening over the far northern portions of the forecast area. Light accumulations of 1 to 3 inches can be expected by tomorrow. The heaviest snow should fall in Ouray County. Just south of the town of Ouray there could be an upside surprise of 4 or 5 inches.
Aside from that, there is not a lot to talk about. Cold temperatures will continue for the next couple of days, then it appears temperatures will moderate beginning on Sunday.
The global models have really been struggling with the intrusion of the extremely cold temperatures mid to late next week. There has been a shift in the forecast further east with the airmass. I have low confidence in what I am seeing because the models struggle with cold air masses this many days out. At the moment it looks like the coldest air will set up in eastern Colorado, Wyoming and Montana, Nebraska, the Dakotas, Iowa, and Minnesota.
Here are the forecast highs for next Thursday according to the European model.
Just to clarify, these are not anomalies they are the actual high temperatures (f). This could put quite a strain on the energy grid in some of the southern states.
I do not mind if the cold misses the western slope at all, but I do wish I could see some more meaningful precipitation in the future. As I said the models struggle with processing arctic air masses, which in turn, makes them struggle with jet placement and storm track. Until they can figure out the cold air intrusion, they are not going to be very reliable with long-wave storm development in the Pacific.
I don’t believe there will be anything to talk about on Friday, so I will post again over the weekend. Thanks for following and supporting the site!
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