Friday Afternoon Model Update

1/13/23 Friday 3 pm

I am still trying to put all of the pieces together for this upcoming storm cycle. The models show a noticeable decrease in precipitation sometime on Monday. It will probably stop in many areas in the lower and mid-elevations, but may not stop at all in the higher elevations before the snow picks back up on Tuesday through Wednesday.

The Euro and Canadian are showing additional advisory-level snow across the lower elevations on Tuesday. There is a chance some of the southern areas may get more snow than the higher elevation on Tuesday if everything comes together. The GFS is keeping that heavier precipitation band to the south of our forecast area.

I have found that the total precipitation forecasts for the entire storm cycle are usually more accurate than attempting to predict each wave of the cycle. That being said I am going to share the model forecasts from Saturday night through Monday, then Monday through Wednesday.

GFS through Monday

GFS Monday through Wednesday

GFS total–Saturday through Wednesday

Canadian through Monday

Canadian Monday through Wednesday

Canadian total–Saturday through Wednesday

European through Monday

European Monday through Wednesday

Notice the focus on the southeastern portions of the forecast area. I would not put a lot of faith into the specifics. The European model has favored the east over the west, or the west over the east before and it was wrong. It is usually more latitudinally correct than longitudinally when it is honing in on a heavier wave. Plus we are 4 days away from that period…

European total–Saturday through Wednesday

A Winter Weather Advisory was just issued for the higher elevations with 8-16 inches through Sunday evening. After reading the NWS forecast discussion, I think they are going to wait until tomorrow to upgrade the advisory to a warning. I also expect a  Winter Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory to be issued for the lower and mid-elevation areas tomorrow. This would likely begin at midnight Sunday morning through 5 pm Sunday.

My next update will be Saturday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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