Saturday Morning Model Update

1/14/23 Saturday 8 am

If you missed my early morning update there are Winter Storm Warnings issued for the entire forecast area. Big Storms On The Way–Winter Storm Warnings For The Entire Forecast Area

The biggest challenge continues to be when to stop counting the snow from the first system and start counting for the second system. The heaviest snow will fall tomorrow morning and during the day tomorrow. The Winter Storm Warnings stop counting at 5 pm on Sunday. The NWS Event Total Snowfall maps stop counting at 5 am Tuesday.

I am going to go a slightly different route and show the model totals through 5 pm Monday.

I have got my eye on one model in particular and its next run will factor in heavily to my forecast this afternoon. I never rely on one model, but when it comes to crunch time I think given its high-resolution the NBM blended model is the best model to share.

Keep in mind, when looking at the snowfall output parameter the models are at a default 10-1 ratio so adding an extra 20% at or above 9,000 feet is a good rule of thumb.

This is not my forecast, that will be out later today (before 2 pm).

Here is the snowfall through 5 pm Monday at a 10-1 output from the high-resolution NBM model.

Here is the total liquid precipitation map for the same period from the same model. Sometimes, people like to do the math themselves. The colors are easier to differentiate with the total liquid output parameter.

My next update will be out before kickoff. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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