Monday Morning Update

2/20/23 Monday 7:45 am

While the GFS and Canadian models have been pretty consistent with their total precipitation for this upcoming storm (and leftovers), the European model is starting to drift. It is important to note that the European has under forecasted the snow totals for 70% of the forecast area for every major winter storm we have had this year.

Winter Storm Watches were issued Sunday for most of the forecast area. Overnight they increased the snow totals in the lower elevations and the possible wind speeds in both the lower and higher elevations.

I have mentioned the wind for the last few days. It will make travel treacherous and avalanche conditions will be very dangerous. Wind gusts up to 70 mph in the lower and mid-elevations and 80 mph gusts in the higher elevations!

Here are the current Winter Storm Watches. Note that these totals and conditions are only through Wednesday night. This does not necessarily mean it will stop snowing Wednesday night. Additional advisories may very well be needed in some areas through Friday night. I guarantee you there will be pass closures and we may see some resorts close if the winds live up to expectations.

COZ003-010-017>019-UTZ025-028-202200-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230223T1200Z/  
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-  
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-  
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-  
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, ASPEN, VAIL, SNOWMASS,   
RIDGWAY, GLADE PARK, TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,   
RICO, HESPERUS, AND MONTICELLO  
236 AM MST MON FEB 20 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20   
  INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 80 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST, SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL   
  COLORADO AND EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH.  
  
* WHEN...FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. WIDESPREAD BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON   
  RIDGE TOPS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE   
  EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE. THE COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 30 BELOW   
  ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30   
  MINUTES.

COZ020>023-202200-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230223T1200Z/  
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-  
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GATEWAY, NUCLA, CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK,   
MANCOS, DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
236 AM MST MON FEB 20 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10  
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS  
  HIGH AS 70 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER, FOUR CORNERS/UPPER   
  DOLORES RIVER, ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN   
  AREAS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR   
  EVENING COMMUTE. VERY STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE EXTENSIVE TREE   
  DAMAGE.

The Canadian, GFS and German models have changed very little in the last several days. These are the liquid totals through Saturday. The majority of which will fall from late Tuesday through Thursday morning.

GFS