5/7/23 Sunday 8:10 am
Late spring is very challenging for weather models. Because May and June are characteristically dry months, a slightly sneaky storm here or there can cause a significant anomaly in the precipitation totals. Slight changes in the upper-level jet can bounce us back and forth between winter and summer. This usually leaves us with windy conditions.
Which is where we are now. We should transition into slightly warmer temperatures Monday-Wednesday before another system moves in from the west late Wednesday bringing a return of light rain showers and mountain snow to the area. The models show this system lifting out on Friday. At that point, the models really diverge, the GFS shows sub-tropical moisture retrograding into the forecast area. The European shows a ridge building across the area. We will see. If that moisture does show up, it will be interesting to see which weather network incorrectly identifies it as “Monsoonal”…
After such an exciting winter, forecasters look for something interesting to discuss. When I first started doing this, I only did it in the late fall and winter. As my following grew I started posting more regularly during the “off-season”. At the request of followers, I would track and update everyone on any local wildfires. Hopefully, that won’t be an issue this year.
It is looking more and more like we will experience a significant ENSO event this year. The end result would be a “Strong” or “Very Strong” El Nino. As I have said year after year, El Nino and La Nina have less of an effect on us (specifically SW Colorado) than in other areas. An El Nino does not always mean a wetter winter. Just as a La Nina does not guarantee a dry winter. Last winter was a La Nina winter, did it seem dry to anyone around here? I point that out because there are areas that are definitely affected by ENSO and you will be hearing about it a lot this year. The heaviest winters around here have always occurred during very weak to neutral ENSO conditions.
So what does that mean for us? Too early to tell, but I can tell you that the forecast for El Nino would resemble the 97-98 and the 15-16 El Nino, with a little bit of 09-10 thrown in. That does not mean the snowfall will be similar, it means the El Nino will be similar to what it was then.
It is also too early to talk about the monsoon season. I should have a better handle on it in a couple of weeks or so.
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