5/19/23 Friday 7 am
A couple of areas of low pressure are going to enhance storm coverage this weekend. The heaviest showers should fall later today and Saturday. Potentially heavy showers will redevelop Sunday. Lingering moisture will keep afternoon showers firing through at least Tuesday.
There are some existing hydrological concerns, they may be worse than anticipated depending on where the heaviest bands of rain set up.
It has been a couple of years since we had to deal with this, I forgot the hydro updates come out with the afternoon forecast package. These were issued yesterday afternoon.
COC067-200030- /O.NEW.KGJT.FL.Y.0011.230518T2116Z-230522T0000Z/ /LPHC2.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 316 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023 ...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Minor flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected. * WHERE...La Plata River at Hesperus. * WHEN...From this afternoon to Sunday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1:30 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 4.9 feet. - Forecast...The river will oscillate around flood stage with a maximum value of 5.5 feet Saturday morning. - Action stage is 5.0 feet. - Flood stage is 5.5 feet. - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood && Fld Observed Forecasts (3 pm MDT) Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun La Plata River Hesperus 5.5 4.9 Thu 1 pm MDT 5.0 5.1 4.9 &&
COC083-192145- /O.NEW.KGJT.FL.Y.0012.230518T2131Z-000000T0000Z/ /MNRC2.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/ 331 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023 ...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE... * WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected. * WHERE...Mancos River near Mancos. * WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice. * IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, lowland flooding downstream Mancos is expected, potentially inundating adjacent fields and county road crossings. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1:45 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 5.3 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to oscillate between bankfull and flood stage through the weekend, dropping below 5.0 feet next week. - Action stage is 5.0 feet. - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
COC007-192115- /O.EXT.KGJT.FL.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-230521T0600Z/ /PSPC2.N.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/ 311 PM MDT Thu May 18 2023 ...FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Minor flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is expected. * WHERE...San Juan River at Pagosa Springs. * WHEN...Until early Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...At 10.3 feet, water is expected to flow into residential yards in the San Juan River Village, northeast of Pagosa Springs. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1:00 PM MDT Thursday the stage was 8.7 feet. - Forecast...The river will crest around 9.1 feet just after midnight tonight, and then drop to roughly 8.6 feet by early tomorrow afternoon. Then, water levels are expected to rise back up, peaking around 10.2 feet Saturday morning. It will then fall again and oscillate below bankfull through next week. - Action stage is 9.5 feet. - Flood stage is 10.5 feet. - Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood && Fld Observed Forecasts (12 pm MDT) Location Stg Stg Day/Time Fri Sat Sun San Juan River Pagosa Spring 10.5 8.7 Thu 1 pm MDT 8.6 10.2 9.0
For now, nothing has been issued for the Animas. That could change very quickly depending on where the heaviest rains fall. Regardless, the river is forecast to peak within the next week. and it should oscillate between a gauge height of 7 to 8 feet and 7,700 to 10,500 (cfs). This could result in some minor flooding in low-lying areas mainly north of town.
My next update will be this afternoon around 4 pm.
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