8/18/23 Friday 8:15 am
Yesterday’s rain was not as widespread as depicted by the morning model runs. Today the models have backed off on the activity for today, what does that mean? Based upon model performance I would say very little. I expect hit-and-miss isolated showers throughout the forecast area. In the absence of any defined disturbance, the models struggle.
Speaking of defined disturbances, Southern California should be preparing for the worst tropical storm since 1976. No excuses, it is coming, the eastern edge of the storm will receive the most rain. Hopefully, this will be taken seriously by officials. Residents and tourists around the Salton Sea will see the most rain. This includes Palm Springs, La Quinta, Rancho Mirage and Palm Desert. Even Las Vegas would get over an inch of rain. It could change, but it is looking unlikely that any of that precipitation will make it to our area. If that is the case it will be dry here Saturday-Monday. Rain could return by late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Here is the latest event precipitation forecast. It certainly could change considerably before the worst of the storm hits.
Is this a rare or unusual occurrence? Not really, and it will not be even close to the worst. If you want to read more about the history of tropical storms/remnants in California this is a good read. Tropical Storms in California
I have noticed a number of “Winter Outlooks” coming out recently. I am also getting anxious for Winter and my thinking on Winter has not changed. It will start late as El Nino transitions into an El Nino modoki. From late December/early January through April we will experience below-average temperatures and above-average snowfall. Lower elevation areas will receive more snow than last year. Mid-elevations and mountain areas will receive slightly less snow than last (still considerably above average). All areas will be colder than last year from January through April. Some of you may remember the winter of 2009-2010, that is what I am expecting.
I will post another storm update on Saturday.
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