Pattern Change Starts Saturday

9/29/23 Friday 7:20 am

Cooler and wetter conditions are on the way for the forecast area. I have been riding the Euro horse in this race for quite some time. Models struggle during the fall more than any other season. I have learned to go with consistency, the European model has been very consistent for nearly the last week showing this change.

Before we look at the maps, I want say that I do not have a lot of confidence on when the precipitation will start on Saturday, especially in the lower elevations across the southern portions of the forecast area (Durango, Ignacio, Bayfield). It is going to be a coin toss as to whether the rain starts early, as the models suggest, or if it takes longer to saturate the atmosphere. My guess is later, but we will see.

Here are the maps in motion, with the latest European model run. The maps start at 6 am on Saturday and end on Wednesday at 6 am. Green is rain, blue is snow. The darker the shade, the heavier the precipitation.

Here is the event-total liquid precipitation potential.

With rain events, I think it is important to emphasize “potential”. Rather than calling this a precipitation forecast. If you are new to the site, during the winter I am more detailed and take the models more seriously, issuing snow forecasts for specific locations throughout the forecast area.

Snow levels will drop towards the end of this precipitation event and will have to be watched very closely, especially Monday through Tuesday night.

My next update will be Saturday morning.

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