11/5/23 Sunday 7:45 MST
Happy Standard Time! Today is one my favorite days, unfortunately, I don’t have a lot of promising weather to talk about. But, hopefully, that won’t surprise anyone. I have been promoting a very boring fall and a slow start to a big winter for quite some time.
Nothing has changed. This week we may, if we are lucky, see a storm pass to our north late Wednesday through Thursday. In the best-case scenario, it will clip the northern fringes of the forecast area. It should return temps to seasonal norms for a while. This has been a consistent solution on the Euro model. To a lesser degree, the Canadian model as well. The GFS has given up (for now) on this Thursday feature.
Going beyond Friday, there is no model agreement. The Euro is trying to take a low-pressure system into the west during the first couple of days of next week. The counterclockwise flow would reach out and pull some warmer-sourced moisture into the mix and deliver it to our area in southwest flow. I have low confidence in that happening right now.
I will continue to watch how this week evolves over the next couple of days. I hate always to be the bearer of boring news. So, on a positive note, I will leave you with the MSLP forecast for the winter from the Canadian model. MSLP stands for Mean Sea Level Pressure and is a good indicator of the forecast for the storm track.
Eventually, the northern jet is going to drop south so we will be in the storm track and not have all of the storms go to our north. When it does, likely in late December, I expect it to stay there for most of the winter. The models are starting to show that in their winter forecasts.
Here is the Canadian model. The blue indicates below-average low pressure. I “connected the dots” to show you what the storm track would look like with this forecast.
The Euro is pretty similar.
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