11/29/23 Wednesday 8:20 am
The southern track for the Thursday storm seems to be locked in. Late tonight and early tomorrow the storm should track far south of the forecast area. It looks like the path of heaviest snow will be between Grants and Gallup then NE to Cuba.
In our area, light snow will start to fall in the higher elevations by late in the day on Thursday. By Friday morning, that snow will be working south across the lower elevations. The snow may become briefly heavier on Friday afternoon. This will deliver slightly higher accumulations to portions of the northern forecast area, and perhaps some upside surprises across the western portions of the forecast area (Dwest, DRR, Hesperus, North Mancos, Dolores, Rico)
Scattered light snow will be possible on Saturday and Sunday with more persistent snowfall from Telluride to Red Mountain and Ouray.
It is still a little early for a forecast, but generally speaking, 2 to 5 inches across the lower and mid-elevations below 7,800 feet. 4-8 inches above that. Slightly higher accumulations will be possible for Telluride, Red Mountain, and Wolf Creek. We will be borderline for a low-end Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains.
I am still not that comfortable with the maps, maybe, this afternoon if they look more realistic.
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