12/7/23 Thursday 8 am
Snow should break out early tomorrow morning across northern portions of the forecast area. Here is the latest European model snow forecast. This model is taking a best-case scenario approach to its forecast. The other models are not as generous.
This equates to dusting or less for most areas. 1-3 inches for Purgatory, Wolf Creek, Silverton, Ouray, and Rico. 3-6 inches for Telluride and Red Mountain Pass. The snow-to-liquid ratios will be very high toward the end of this storm, that is why I am predicting slightly higher snow amounts for Telluride and Red Mountain than the models show.
At some point, we will transition to a more predictable winter pattern, the storm track will also drop further south. The northerly track is very typical for late November and early December. I have recently said, I expect a pattern change around or after mid-month.
Models are already trying to sniff out a very disorganized warm storm coming through the area late next week. I am going to keep an eye on it but I have low confidence at this point. Technically, it is our next best chance of precipitation. Hopefully, it will start to look more organized in the coming days.
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