12/17/23 Sunday 7:30 am
Models are still mixed on how exactly the weather will unfold for the holidays. I would expect that to be the case for just a couple more days. At the moment, the biggest agreement among the models is that a storm will move into our area on the 23rd and 24th. Anything before or after that is still up for debate.
Yesterday, the midday run of the European showed a beautiful period of snowy weather from Friday through Monday with some impressive totals and enough cold air for the snow to accumulate well. Last night’s overnight European run, restricted most of the activity to Saturday and Sunday next weekend and showed an unlikely accumulation spread.
Generally, the European latches on to the correct idea before the other models do. The Canadian is usually second to the party and the GFS is the last to figure it out. Most of the popular weather apps seemed to be strongly tied to or heavily dominated by the GFS model. That is why people get frustrated with the accuracy of their weather apps.
When people email me about my favorite app, I always respond in the same way. I don’t like any of them, if I had to pick one it would be Wunderground. But that is not a strong endorsement. If you want an app for automated short-term ski area forecasts it would be Open Snow, it uses a blended model solution that is better tailored to the higher elevations.
Here is the latest European model in motion beginning Friday evening and running through Tuesday 12/26. As I mentioned earlier, I think this model had issues in this run. I think it is unlikely it will unravel this way.
The model has determined that this crazy run would result in these unusual results for snowfall.
I don’t think I have seen a Silverton donut before. This is a highly unusual way to accumulate snow in SW Colorado.
Yesterday’s midday run looked like this.
That’s more like it. I can’t say that this is what will happen, but at least it makes sense.
Yesterday, I reintroduced the MJO to followers. I expect to be referencing it a lot this season. Today’s MJO Phase Diagrams show a quicker path (roughly 24 hours) into Phase 1. Phase 1 is usually characteristic of colder weather for our forecast area.
European
GFS
If the midday model snow forecast runs look more ambitious I will post them later. If not I will post again tomorrow morning.
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