12/22/23 1:00 pm
Most of the models have sped up the onset of precipitation from the southern system. At the risk of sounding like a model denier, I am not sure they have made the right call.
Here is the current NOAA surface map.
You can see that both the northern storm and the southern storms have made it partially overland.
A closer look at the details shows multiple spokes on energy in the form of shortwave troughs involved with both systems.
Most accompany the southern system. I haphazardly circled some of the areas of interest. South of Vegas you can see the shallow low pressure with multiple shortwave troughs spidering around it. Off of the SoCal coast, you see the purple extension with the dotted line. That dotted line indicates Cyclogenesis, which is either strengthening or the birth of a new storm. It may absorb the new shortwave immediately to its south.
More questions than answers. This is going to be a low-confidence forecast because I am not sure the models are keeping up with the evolution of the southern system.
Pueblo NWS already updated the total for Wolf Creek to 10-20 inches in their Winter Storm Warning.
I am going to try to buy some more time. I should have the forecast out by 5 pm.
Thanks for following and supporting the site!