12/22/23 Friday 8:20 am
I wish I had more time. Maybe, I will. Check out our 2 storms right now.
The southern system will arrive first. You see a few spokes of disturbances coming out of the closed-low pressure. In a perfect scenario, we will notice some slowing with the system as it gets fully over land. It has been nearly stationary since 11 am yesterday according to NOAA maps.
Yesterday 11 am
Today at 5 am
Yesterday I mentioned I would talk about some preliminary snow forecasts. At the moment I would be in 12 to 16-inch camp for Wolf Creek. 10 to 14 for Purgatory and 6 to 10 for Telluride. Some of the higher mid-elevation areas at or above 7,800 should also hit 6 to 10 inches.
At the moment, I expect zero snow below 6,500 feet at least until late Saturday afternoon, when the northern front blows through. As it moves through the temperatures will drop dramatically. It may lead to some squally conditions across the mid-and lower elevations Saturday evening and possibly Sunday morning. Those squally conditions will extend throughout the day on Sunday in the Northern San Juans and Wolf Creek Pass.
More than likely, I am only going to be 50% confident with my snowfall forecast below 7,800 feet. This storm has all of the ingredients to make a large dangerous Winter Storm for everyone. A strengthening storm can develop convection and lower slow levels by 2,000 feet very quickly.
Precipitable Water Values with the southern storm are forecasted to be 300%-340% of average tonight into Saturday morning. That could generate 2-3 inches per hour of snowfall, especially above 8,000 feet.
There is a lot that we still don’t know about the storm for the lower elevations. Hopefully, I will get better clues as the day goes on. It might not be a bad idea to check on battery-powered items, especially if you are in areas prone to power outages. The snow does not necessarily have to fall on your property to affect your power.
I will be posting throughout the day.
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