3/8/24 Friday 1:15 pm
Snowfall amounts were on the lower end of model expectations through this morning. The expected lull is in place and another small disturbance is on its way, but this time it will track in from the Southwest.
Yesterday, I made reference to the fact that all of the models were suggesting that the precipitation will stay mostly south of the area until it rapidly tracks north into Archuleta County and slams into Wolf Creek Pass.
Here are a couple of examples showing the snowfall confined mostly to the pass.
European Snow Forecast
NBM High-Resolution Model Snow Forecast
Every model shows a similar track. The model spread is for 6 to 12 inches of snow, from the lowest to the highest forecast. This is possible given the track of the storm and the orographics as one travel up the pass. That being said, the models have been making a lot of errors lately. NWS Pueblo is being very gun-shy with 2 to 11 inches listed in their advisory.
In similar instances earlier this year when it shows the rapid track into Archuleta County, it has been wrong. Often times narrow band of precipitation falls much further west and the amounts are much lower.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out. If the models are wrong, we should know soon because it should be snowing at Wolf Creek in a couple of hours according to the models.
Saturday and Sunday should be quiet with another chance of snow late Monday. The models are depicting unsettled weather for most of next week, we’ll see.
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