3/11/24 Monday 1:45 pm
Twenty-four hours ago, the models went crazy with snow totals. Today, they are even deeper. They are seeing light snow entering the northern forecast area starting tomorrow afternoon. By Wednesday, the snow becomes more widespread and the snowshowers could drift south slightly. By Wednesday night the snow will become heavier into Thursday morning.
Thursday night through Saturday, the models focus on a SW flow storm moving from NE Arizona through the southern portions of the forecast area. The potential exists for very heavy snowfall from Thursday night through Saturday.
There is a lot that can go wrong (as always) between now and then. Also, the timing usually slows down. Thursday night through Saturday could easily change into Friday night through Sunday. It could also be a big miss, it is just too soon to tell.
I am sure some people will quickly dismiss the models’ based on recent performances. However, conspiracy theorists would mention that our local Spring Break starts this weekend and how unsurprising and predictable it would be for a major storm to come in and shut things down, right when people are trying to get out of town.
Here are a couple of model runs showing for both sides.
Here is the NBM model, showing heavy mountain snow and a few inches in the lower elevations (scenario one).
The next few runs are for my conspiracy theorist followers (scenario two).
European
GFS
Canadian
My next model update will be Tuesday.
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