3/26/24 Tuesday 9:45 am
Very few surprises with the quick-moving storm. Across the mid-elevations, 3 to 9 inches fell. Telluride and Wolf Creek were able to squeeze-out 15 inches with the last storm.
For today, expect snow showers to develop with light rain possible in the lower elevations. Light snow showers may redevelop in the high country Wednesday through Saturday. On Sunday we may see another storm move into the area from Southern California. At the moment, the models are considering several solutions for the So Cal storm.
Hopefully, we will have better information in the next couple of days. We should also see a warm-up going into the weekend. If the storm does affect our area, I expect it to at least start warm with rain in the lower elevations.
There have been some improvements in the European extended model in the last year. They doubled the ensemble members to 100. What this means is they run 100 versions of the model to determine the average output, in theory, this should make it more reliable.
I have closely monitored this long-range model for the last couple of spring seasons to get a handle on how winter ends. Eventually, I will use it to attempt to forecast the monsoon season’s beginning (or existence).
For now through the end of April, the model is not ambiguous at all. It shows well below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation.
The maps below show the forecasted temperature and precipitation anomalies through May 9th.
This map shows how far below average the daily temperatures are forecasted to be.
Here are the liquid equivalent precipitation forecasts. These are not the total precipitation, rather the amount forecasted is the total amount above average for this period.
My next update will be out later this week.
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