3/31/24 Sunday 7:45 am
The tricky split low set-up is giving the models fits with forecasting this storm. As expected, nothing happened last night. My intuition was correct in waiting for additional model runs.
The main low pressure detached and is offshore west of Los Angeles. The other low is over Central Utah, and a new area of low pressure has developed over the Great Salt Lake.
Unfortunately, there is still a huge spread in the precipitation forecasts. Often times when we have this split flow set up, the models never agree on the outcome, even during the storm. Fortunately, we have not had this type of setup very often, at least not this year.
While the models still disagree on the duration of this storm, and how strong the secondary wave will be tomorrow, they do somewhat agree, that precipitation should get underway between 10 am and 2 pm today. It should also increase later this afternoon.
I will watch the new model runs as they come out this morning. In the meantime, here is a ballpark forecast for this storm.
Purgatory, Rico, Silverton, 6 to 10 inches.
Mid-elevation areas adjacent to Purgatory 4 to 8 inches.
Telluride, Red Mountain, 5 to 10 inches with a chance of an upside surprise late Monday.
Wolf Creek 10 to 14 inches.
My next update will be out around 1 pm.
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