1/9/25 Thursday 5 am
I have been talking about this for months, and it looks like some relief will be on the way if we can hold out just a little longer. The European model’s “weeklies” long-term model shows this anomalously dry pattern flipping around January 2oth. BTW, this model now runs daily, so they should change the name…
I have been tracking this for quite a while. It has always shown the pattern change, but it delayed its onset. Here is what I am seeing.
The best way that I have found to accurately track a potential precipitation pattern change is by looking at 7 day precipitation anomalies. The maps show the departure from average precipitation amounts.
Here is the first one showing the next 7 days today until 1/16. These amounts are in liquid precipitation not snow, multiply by 10 to convert to snow.
You see -0.42? That means for that location (near Bayfield), the departure from average is 0.42; in other words, that location over the next week will get .42 inches of liquid precipitation, less than what historically would occur for that week.
1/16-1/23
Statistically average
1/23-1/30
Slight negative, but statistically average (that is why it is white instead of brown) 
1/30-2/6
Statistically average
2/6-2/13
Statistically average
2/13-2/20
Statistically average
The current run of the model only extends to February 23rd, so we will have to wait to see how long this continues.
This weekend, I will start looking for that first storm that flips this pattern for us.