2/11/25 Tuesday 6:30 am (by the way, the time I list is when I start writing, not when I press send)
Before I forget to bring this up, while I still have your attention, if you live in an area that I have failed to include in my snow forecast in the past, Use the blue link that says “Click Here To Submit A Weather Report or Question”. I do not check any other comments except email. So, don’t comment on the site page, Facebook, or Instagram. It’s more efficient to keep all the questions in one spot. Tomorrow or Thursday, I will list all the locations I will be covering to give you one more shot at getting on the list before my Thursday final forecast. Thanks!
I slept in this morning, which is something I have not done in a while. I may do it again tomorrow and Thursday morning to rest up for the BIG storm, arriving late Thursday into early Friday.
Meanwhile, a quick-moving disturbance will drop down from the north this afternoon. Cold temperatures will squeak out high-ratio dry snow for the mountains. I can’t rule out a few flakes across the rest of the forecast area. Not a big deal. Maybe 2 to 5 inches of snow across the mountains, favoring Red Mountain Pass. Purgatory should get just a skiff of snow.
Wolf Creek is a wild card with this first disturbance. The Canadian keeps promising more snow than the other models. The Canadian is better at handling Wolf Creek than the Euro and GFS, and when it spits out higher totals, it is not something to immediately discard. We will see what another model run adds to the story, and I will update everyone this afternoon.
The BIG storm remains on track for late Thursday arrival. Those who want more snow should root for an earlier arrival, as the Euro and Canadian models are forecasting. In another wildcard, the GFS is about 6 hours slower than the other models.
So what, you ask?? Well, characteristically, the GFS is usually the fastest model; it moves storms into the area faster and moves them out of the area faster.
Here are the latest liquid precipitation forecasts from the models: These are through Sunday morning.
GFS
German
European
Canadian
NBM High Resolution (this model is weighted heavily by most NOAA offices-for what it is worth)
NBM snow. NBM is still calling for lower elevations at or below 7,000 feet to get a rain-snow mix. Which would likely be snow, then mix, then rain. I can’t make that call yet.
