2/13/25 Thursday 3:30 am
Sleep is for wimps, especially when we are facing the most significant storm of the season so far!
What a great day!
I could not help but notice that there were some concerns by the second shift of our local Grand Junction weather office when they took over yesterday afternoon and inherited the Winter Storm Watch for Durango and the lower elevations. This is from the afternoon area forecast discussion. It’s like “The Real Meteorologists of Grand Junction”. Check this out:
What remains one of the more challenging aspects of this forecast though are the snow levels thanks to the warm air advection accompanying this surge of AR moisture. Current NBM guidance suggests a steady rise in the mean forecasted snow levels from ~5,500 feet late Thursday to as high as 7,500 during mid-day Friday. To complicate things further, amidst this change is a rather large spread between the 25th and 75th percentile snow levels, which is decreasing our confidence at the moment. This makes it especially challenging to comment on the expected accumulations in valleys where the NBM ranges from a couple inches to about a foot. It is here where we cannot rule out a rain-snow mix or rain as the dominant precipitation type. As this system approaches, updating model guidance should shed some light on expectations, but regardless of how things trend over the next couple days, notable impacts are likely, especially for those anticipating to travel during this period. Just how far down the slopes will we see these impacts is the big question mark. That said, felt there was enough chance for impactful snow across lower elevations above 6500 feet in southwest Colorado to warrant a Watch. Latest forecast may be too aggressive with snow accumulations, but better than a good chance for at least advisory level snow.
I am still about 12 hours from my forecast, but the data supports low-elevation snow.
So, the 3rd shift at NWS doubled down. Avalanche watches follow the Winter Storm Warnings.
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 COZ022-023-132300- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250215T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250214T1900Z/ Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches. * WHERE...Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, warm clothes, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 COZ021-132300- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250215T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250214T1900Z/ Four Corners/Upper Dolores River- Including the cities of Cortez, Dove Creek, and Mancos 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Four Corners/Upper Dolores River. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, warm clothes, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 COZ019-132300- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250215T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250216T0100Z/ Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Mayday 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 2 feet with locally higher amounts up to 3 feet possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 COZ017-018-132300- /O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250216T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250216T0100Z/ Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Ridgway, Glade Park, Telluride, Ouray, and Lake City 252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pueblo CO 300 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 COZ060-067-068-131800- /O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0003.250214T0300Z-250216T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0003.250214T0300Z-250216T0000Z/ Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Including Wolf Creek Pass, andCumbres Pass 300 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 15 and 30 inches. Greatest amounts will be on south and southwest facing slopes of the Eastern San Juan mountains. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet, Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet, and Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible over area mountain passes, especially over Wolf Creek Pass. Strong winds could lead to blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED AVALANCHE WATCH COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 322 PM MST WED FEB 12 2025 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM Thursday UNTIL 5 PM Saturday *WHAT Dangerous avalanche conditions are developing. Expect the Avalanche Danger to rise to HIGH (Level 4 of 5) by Thursday night. *WHERE Park Range, Flat Top Mountains, Elk Mountains, Ruby Range, West Elk Mountains, San Juan Mountains, La Plata Mountains, Needle Mountains, Grenadier Range *WHEN Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to begin on Thursday night by about 11:00 PM and last through Saturday at 5:00 PM. *IMPACTS Heavy snow and strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions by Thursday night. Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger once the new snow accumulates. Large avalanches will run naturally. *PRECAUTION/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS Travel in backcountry avalanche terrain is not recommended from Thursday night through Saturday. Avoid travel on and under slopes with a slope angle steeper than about 30 degrees.
It’s going to be a busy day; I will be back soon!