Sunday Morning Update

The second day of this precipitation event is being downplayed. The models are also not in agreement on total precipitation.

Whatever it is, I will take it. You need to prepare for the fact that totals will be very spotty, meaning some areas may be missed entirely, while anomalously high totals may occur in other areas.

Here are the maps in motion in three hour increments for now through Monday, 6 am.

That snow may become slightly impactful above 10,000 feet.

A weak Winter Weather Advisory has been issued in blanket form due to uncertainty where the snowfall anomalies will occur.

COZ009-010-012-018-019-190100-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0020.250518T1200Z-250519T1200Z/  
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST SAN  
JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SKYWAY, ASPEN, SNOWMASS, VAIL, VAIL PASS,   
MINTURN, CRESTED BUTTE, TAYLOR PARK, MARBLE, MONARCH PASS, MCCLURE   
PASS, TELLURIDE, LIZARD HEAD PASS, OURAY, RED MTN PASS, LAKE CITY,   
SILVERTON, MOLAS PASS, COAL BANK PASS, RICO.  
217 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING   
TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY ABOVE 9,500 FEET...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 9,500 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS   
  BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE   
  TIMBERLINE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN   
  MOUNTAINS, GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, GRAND   
  AND BATTLEMENT MESAS, AND WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. GUSTY WINDS COULD BRING   
  DOWN TREE BRANCHES.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
525 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025  
  
COZ058-060-066-068-181930-  
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0021.250518T1200Z-250519T1200Z/  
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FEET-EASTERN  
SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE  
10000 FEET-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-  
 WOLF CREEK PASS, NORTH PASS, CLIMAX, AND  
CUMBRES PASS  
525 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025  
   
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY  
  
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 4 TO 8 INCHES.   
  WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET, LA GARITA   
  MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET, WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE   
  COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FEET, AND EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE   
  10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL   
  LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD   
  CONDITIONS INCLUDING HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.

Notice the model spread on precipitation.

GFS