6/29/25 Sunday 6:20 am
I apologize for the delay; there are no excuses. My schedule usually results in me waking between 3 and 4 am. It is generally so automatic that I don’t even consider setting an alarm. Today, not so much.
Changes on the way this week, afternoon showers will develop beginning Monday. I am not so sure the showers will be widespread enough for all elevations. On Tuesday, afternoon showers will become more widespread. Wednesday, even more so. Late Wednesday, then again on Thursday, when the heaviest showers are expected. This brief monsoonal-looking event gets shut off on Friday.
Here are the regional maps in motion. Notice the monsoonal flow over NNE Mexico building across the region. I mentioned NNE Mexico because, unfortunately, the bias is east, favoring the Front Range and most of New Mexico (rather than Arizona and Utah). The heaviest flow arrives on Wednesday and Thursday as it tracks further west.
So far, 2025 is the most active Eastern Pacific tropical season in years. This year was the earliest on record for a fifth tropical storm to be named. It does not look like the sixth storm will set a record. That record was in 2018.
Yes, 2018 was our year of fire.
Here is what a quick search reveals about the 2018 EPAC hurricane season.
The 2018 Eastern North Pacific (EPAC) hurricane season was one of the most active on record, breaking records for frequency, intensity, and duration:
Named storms: 23 named storms, tied with 1982 for the fourth-highest number on record. Hurricanes: 13 hurricanes, including 10 intense hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Major hurricane days: 35 major hurricane days, breaking the 2015 record of 24
Category 5 hurricanes: Three Category 5 hurricanes with 160 mph winds, tying the 1994 and 2002 records.Accumulated cyclone energy: The third-highest on record, behind 1990 and 1992.
So what does this mean for winter? I can’t say with 100% certainty, but the weather often gives us hints of the upcoming patterns. I heavily weight past results with future forecasts.
2018-2019 was an epic winter. Nearly as good as 22-23 for the resorts, but 2019 was a monster winter season in the lower elevations. Remember people hiking and skiing the local terrain in town in Durango?
For those of you who were not here or have forgotten. Here are some pictures from my neighborhood to jog your memory.
Here was my path to my backyard.
Yardstick for effect!
As I mentioned, it’s too early for a winter forecast, but I’ll be watching closely for more clues.