10/9/25 Thursday 4:30 am
I’ve been banging on the “wet fall” drum since last month. So here we go! It looks like everyone is in the tub!
Flood Watch “at least through Saturday night” as they said in the discussion.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
215 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
COZ017>023-UTZ022-025-027>029-100000-
/O.CON.KGJT.FA.A.0005.251010T0000Z-251012T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan
Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-Paradox Valley/Lower
Dolores River-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin-
San Juan River Basin
-Southeast Utah-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand
Flat-La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Ridgway, Loghill Village, Telluride,
Mountain Village, Ouray, Lake City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs,
Silverton, Rico, Nucla, Naturita, Norwood, Slick Rock, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio,
Blanding,Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Mexican
Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area,
Rainbow Bridge South Trailhead, Moab, Green River, Castle Valley,
Monticello, La Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and
Canyonlands National Park
215 AM MDT Thu Oct 9 2025
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Colorado, including the following areas,
Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest
San Juan Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan
River Basin, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau
and Dallas Divide and Utah, including the following areas,
Arches/Grand Flat, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo
Mountains, Southeast Utah and Tavaputs Plateau.
* WHEN...From this evening through Saturday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Excessive rainfall may result in flooding of slot
canyons, normally dry washes, slickrock areas, recent burn scars,
urban areas, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Rockslides and mudslides are possible in the mountains.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Tropical moisture will stream northward into the region on
Thursday, bringing widespread heavy rain and increasing the
threat of flash flooding across portions of southeastern Utah
and southwest Colorado. An increased risk of flash flooding
will continue through at least Saturday evening across the
watch area.
I am not going to get too deep into it just yet, but the moisture may depart on Sunday, only to return late Monday into Tuesday. This is not just a Friday-Saturday-only deal.
There were issues overnight with the model run only extending 77 hours of run time, which only gets us to 3 am Sunday. No worries for now. Models have been very consistent run to run, this is going to be a soaker!!
Here is the precipitation forecast for the period through Sunday evening. This was the last full model run. This is for emphasis, to illustrate the potential danger this situation could pose.
Those darker reds West of Durango are in excess of 4 inches! I am not worried about snow through Sunday. Could it mix in the highest elevations? Sure, I suppose, but it is not a concern at this time.
I am doing an afternoon update today, hopefully Europe will fix their model before then!