10/23/25 Thursday 6 am
Last night’s model run backed way off the accumulations for the inbound So Cal Low. I looked at the surface map and radar, two things stood out: 1) The low was further south than I expected, and was slower moving than advertised. 2) The precipitation was moving north quickly, leading me to believe that most of the precipitation would spin north from eastern Utah into Northwest Colorado.
Although that could still happen, the new early morning run showed double to triple the precipitation amounts of the previous run!
So I am slightly more optimistic. I went from low confidence to cautiously optimistic very quickly. Why the change?
I looked at the high-resolution models and they show moderate convection (thunderstorms) developing, with above-average chances of heavy-rainers. Unfortunately, that would also mean hail.
Here is the latest precipitation forecast. Notice the heaviest precipitation falls across the lower to mid-elevation areas–will this trend continue into the winter? Will it be one of those years? We’re due!
Snow continues to look unimpressive, but present. A couple to a few inches should accumulate over the passes.