11/16/25 Sunday 3:30 am
Before I forget, when I say WC, I am referring to Wolf Creek. I received numerous emails inquiring about this. Sorry, I will type it out going forward.
Another question I have been getting for a while:
What are my thoughts on AI and weather forecasting?
I think that eventually, Quantum Computing will have a more significant impact when used in conjunction with AI. I believe that NOAA and other World Government Meteorological Departments will always chase the technology and always be behind the curve. Just as AI influences every other aspect of our lives, what we have access to will always be outdated. Also, bad data in can lead to horrible data output. Always remember that.
Speaking of bad data, the US GFS model seems to be changing every 6 hours regarding the midweek storm, so I am still going to focus on today’s storm.
Here is the latest surface map and radar showing the apparent location of the storm, which is now coming onshore in California.
I say apparent because you really cannot be 100% sure of the location. I trust WU based up the sheer amount of data they use to plot. However, they do reset to NWS data as it is reported hourly.
What I see here is a storm that is going to take its time. Eventually, as high pressure is forced to our east, the clockwise flow around the high pressure should spin the low north towards our forecast area.
Until then, moisture will continue to move into our area. Precipitation will begin in the higher elevations before spreading to the lower elevations. Heavier precipitation may not reach the area until after 5 pm.
The speed of the system will impact the total precipitation we receive. Remember, this is not a huge storm for us.
NWS has already issued a low-end advisory for 4 to 8 inches above 9,000 feet despite forecasting below the minimum range to qualify for an advisory. I get it: First storm of the season, blah blah blah.
I am looking forward to seeing the morning model runs. I tend not to trust the off-hour model runs. Additionally, models perform significantly better when a system is on land.
I should have that afternoon update out between noon and three pm.