12/25/25 Thursday 4 am
An initial surge of moisture arrived last night. My weather station pinged my phone around 10 pm to let me know it was raining, which was a generous description given the fact that I only received 0.01 inches of rain overnight.
I can actually see the light rain falling on the LOTDW model (Look Out The Dang Window model).
The European model had the best initialization among all overnight model runs. It was released in the last hour or so. It delayed the overnight precipitation until about now. Flurries are occasional at best so far. That same model run shows precipitation increasing over the next couple of hours (we’ll see).
Webcams show very little activity, with occasional flurries and what appears to be poor visibility at Wolf Creek. Not a surprise given that it is 30 degrees up there.
I have to assume the same conditions apply to the other passes, but we no longer have webcams there to verify. Ironically, we now have eight webcams on 550 south of Durango before you reach CR302? Not the time to rant, but…
In the past, when we have had pieces of the storm or multiple systems coming in, I forecast for the event, knowing that the “right for the wrong reason” effect usually comes into play. Meaning, event totals are generally more correct than trying to time out each day. I did not do that this time because more people were on the road traveling to celebrate with loved ones, and I wanted to be more concise.
No surprise: the models now show a much better chance of precipitation over the weekend. The event totals did not change much; however, the 24-hour totals flip-flopped.
The next 24 hours are now expected to be lighter than I forecasted. I will get a chance to redeem myself on Friday for the next batch over the weekend. Then we can focus on the post-New Year’s storm the models are currently trying to decipher.
I didn’t sleep much at all last night. I got some news at Susan’s appointment that I will share in a little later.
Before I jump into that, I have received some comments about my recent use of AI to clean up and breathe “life” into my posts. To clarify, I have always used some form of higher intelligence to edit my posts.
Initially, it was my wife, Susan. She really enjoyed correcting my grammatical errors. Susan was one of those people who loved going to school and had perfect grades. She read several books a month and was very organized and a bit of a clean freak. An ideal match for me over the last three and a half decades, opposites really do attract.
Within 18 months of her diagnosis, she was no longer able to read or write. At that point, I switched to Grammarly AI, mainly as a grammar editor and thesaurus. Lately, I have been using Gemini 3 AI to help organize her treatment plans.
As her condition has worsened over the last couple of months, my ability to churn out uplifting posts in an organized manner has been challenged.
One very early morning, a couple of weeks ago, I started a post that was a bunch of garbage and thought, “Why not have Gemini clean this up for me?”. AI can get lost and is sometimes wrong, so I was concise in the direction I gave it: use my data and information, but present it in a more upbeat tone. Eventually, it suggested formatting changes, saying it would “modernize” the blog.
The changes have concerned some long-time followers, who believe it is no longer me. I assure you, the data is the same from my data providers. The analysis is mine and mine alone. I approve or discard many of the changes AI makes. AI use requires supervision for sure.
I have received more compliments than complaints about the blog’s aesthetics (titles and occasional emojis) and summaries. This is likely due to my readers’ demographics.
Nevertheless, I understand those who are concerned, but I am just trying to stay relevant and upbeat when my sleep deprivation challenges my concentration levels. I assure you, it is still me (emphasis mine).
I am going to jump off right here and create a new post regarding Susan’s new diagnosis and update her friends and followers on her condition. That will be the best way to allow those who want to “opt out” to do so.
I will update everyone tomorrow afternoon on the weekend precipitation outlook. Until then, Merry Christmas, and please cherish those you hold dear, as you never know what the future holds!
Merry Christmas, Jeff and Susan!
Merry Christmas to you and Susan, may the Lord Bless you and keep you, and may His light shine upon you both. 🙏🙏
A Very Blessed Christmas to you and your wife. I know we live in the same subdivision but I do not know where. You are a gift to those of us who like an informative yet humorous look at the weather. Having been in a caregiver position before I know a little of your constant angst and grieving. May the year ahead be filled with some joy as well. Emmanuel. God is with us…always. Kay
Dear Jeff.
Merry Christmas, and I hope for a better year to come. It as been raining steadily here at Falls Creek Ranch all morning.
We all are thinking of you and Susan.
Nancy Henry