1/2/26 Friday 4:30 am
As for liquid-equivalent precipitation, the storm is outperforming the model forecasts.
There is a thick layer of warm air between 6,000 feet and 8,200 feet from 38 to 34 degrees. The snow level is just below 9,000 feet. Very sloppy.
Conditions are getting tricky over Red Mountain and Wolf Creek passes due to sub-freezing temperatures. Wolf Creek has dropped to 24 degrees, which is in the optimal range for snow production. How did all of the models miss that?
When your forecast is for nearly zero, it is not difficult to produce an anomaly!
The weak cold front and trough appear to be back in Western Utah. Assuming that placement is correct, we could have several more hours before the precipitation leaves the area. If it is wrong, and that is not unusual, it may be closer to shutting off the SW flow across the forecast area than we think.
This front is also the catalyst for heavier precipitation in the NW San Juans, where moderate snow is already falling. Also, note, the next storm becoming occluded over the Pacific. That storm looks fairly weak, with a Monday/Tuesday potential arrival.
Later in the week–late Wednesaday/Thursday through the day Friday, I am starting to see signs of a pattern change, with increasing chances of a “proper” snow storm for the entire forecast area, I am trying to keep expectations low, but it is encouraging.
I will be monitoring surface map for updates and will post if I see the morning CPC crew correct any surface model errors. That will give us better details on the timeline.