1/6/26 Tuesday 3 am
As I mentioned yesterday, the models will struggle with accuracy until they have something on land to track. The latest data from all models points to midday on Wednesday for that closed low to come ashore south of San Diego and track northeast.
I was surprised by the brief light snow flurries that fell across the mid- and lower elevations yesterday morning. “Sometimes it just snows…”
The most significant change in the last 24 hours is in the GFS model. The GFS is now all in on the late-week storm. At the same time, the European model is now playing with lower totals. We should see better alignment among the models tomorrow afternoon.
I will try to stay neutral until tomorrow, but I am excited to see how this comes together. As for low-elevation snow, I believe it will be all or none. I do not see this as a warm, rainy, high-elevation event; instead, I see a hit-or-miss. I am also still in the camp that if it does “hit”, it will not be a big storm, but it will be efficient in snow production.
In other news, the MJO is still expected to emerge in about 10 days, so after this storm, we will have plenty to discuss!