01/09/26 Thursday 2:30 am
No spinning this, the closed low that came ashore yesterday is already parked between Santa Fe and SE Colorado.
A shortwave trough is providing energy to fuel some mountain snow showers, while the cold front is still back in Nevada.
12 hours ago, I noted the lack of run-to-run consistency in the models and decided to hold off on an extended forecast.
Looks like a little snow has fallen at DWG HQ since I woke up, less than half an inch. Purgatory appears to have accumulated just under 2 inches as of 4 am. Moderate snow is falling around Telluride and light snow is falling around Wolf Creek.
As the colder air moves in, it may push some drier air ahead of it, which would temporarily shut down the precipitation. As the trough approaches, snow should redevelop, but favor the NW San Juans: Telluride, Red Mountain, and Ouray, and even Silverton may also get in on the action if the moisture gets trapped in the Valley before the cold air arrives, resulting in an overrunning event.
At best, NW San Juans are likely to see an event total of less than 8 inches. Purgatory could end up with 4 to 6 inches. Wolf Creek is a bit of a wild card but likely in the 3 to 6 inch range.
If the lower and mid-elevations end up with 1 to 3 inches, I would now consider that a win.
What we originally hoped for with all the pieces coming together can no longer happen. Could other pieces regroup at the last minute to produce enhanced precip across the entire forecast area? Sure. But I am not betting on it.
This has evolved into a “sometimes it just snows” event. It is winter, by the way, even though it does not seem like it.
All is not lost. I still see signs of a reversal before winter is over. It will likely come up after another bout of warm weather, briefly, before the pattern flips.
If I see an abrupt shift throughout the day, I will post.
Only about an inch of snow or less at 7,750 feet elevation….corner of CRs 502 and 228. Haven’t actually measured it…just a guess. Not much really !!