Apparently, some people did not get this. I am sorry, not sure what happened, but most people got it.

1/23/26 Friday 3 am

I have been up since midnight. It is amazing how many challenges can occur at this hour. Fortunately, so far, none of them has anything to do with my wife. Simple and not-so-simple computer issues, I will spare you the details.

The closed low is definitely taking its time coming on shore south of San Diego. This could have ramifications for a later start today.

The later the better at this point for snow totals. The models are insistent that this will be a major storm across most mountain areas. Purgatory is forecasted to be on the lower end of those totals.

This looks like the biggest storm of the year for Wolf Creek. Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) may reach 16:1 or higher before snow stops falling at higher elevations. Even at lower and mid elevations, SLRs will be enhanced when colder air settles in, making snow removal easier.

Main concern now is that the coldest air is trapped on the other side of the divide and to our north. This should start infiltrating the area later today, and I have to assume it will happen before the deeper moisture arrives. If it doesn’t, that would result in even lower totals. I will reassess and repost later today since the bulk of the snow is expected overnight and Saturday morning.

The models indicate potential moderate impacts for Coal Bank and Molas, major impacts for Red Mountain and Lizard Head, and likely closures for Wolf Creek.

I am going to ballpark the totals for now and will reassess later today based on what I see in the future model runs this morning. Again, for now, I am going to believe what I see in these model runs.

Wolf Creek 14 to 20 inches

Red Mountain and Lizard Head 12 to 16 inches

Telluride, Molas, and Coal Bank 10 to 14 inches

Purgatory 6 to 10 inches

Pagosa 5 to 9 inches

Mid Elevations from 7,200 – 8,200 feet, 3 to 6 inches, possibly higher anomalies for the 240 corridor, as well as Vallecito/Lemon and DVE in western Archuleta County

Durango, Mancos, and Bayfield 2 to 4 inches.

Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches below 6,500 feet south of Hwy 160.

I’ll be back…

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