2/13/26 Thursday 5 am
Over the last 2 1/2 hours, I have been going through models and waiting for updates. It always seems to be these smaller events that the models struggle the most with.
A quick couple of inches fell at Purgatory overnight. I was watching on webcams and saw a couple of moderate to heavy bands had developed in weak SW flow.
The point is, the models missed that. This means the overnight model runs did not initialize correctly. In other words the assumptions they are making (forecasts) are already potentially flawed.
The models show light on-and-off snow showers this morning, with the heaviest snow between 10 am and 2 pm along 550. For 160, assuming it comes together, the snow would be on the increase later in the day into the evening.
Models how 3 to 5 additional inches of snow for the Red Mountain-Telluride areas. They must be expecting the flow to shift to NW which enhances precipitation in those areas. In areas around Purgatory up to Molas lesser amounts are expected. Samething with Wolf Creek.
I am still a bit skeptical of how this is all going to wrap up today. That said, it does not take long for a couple of inches to fall at elevation.